I figure I should update my blog because
(1) I just returned from PNHP's annual meeting in Boston/Cambridge,
(2) Tomorrow is election day, and
(3) It's been ages since I've updated this thing.
Since tomorrow is election day, it's time for me to make my official US Senate predictions. And here they are...
Safe seats:
California: Dianne Feinstein
Delaware: Tom Carper
Florida: Bill Nelson
Hawaii: Daniel Akaka
Indiana: Dick Lugar
Maine: Olympia Snowe
Massachusetts: Ted Kennedy
Mississippi: Trent Lott
Nebraska: Ben Nelson
New Mexico: Jeff Bingaman
New York: Hillary Clinton
North Dakota: Kent Conrad
Texas: Kay Bailey Hutchison
Utah: Orrin Hatch
Vermont: Bernie Sanders
West Virginia: Robert Byrd
Wisconsin: Herb Kohl
Wyoming: Craig Thomas
Less safe seats:
Arizona: Jon Kyl (v. Jim Pederson)
Connecticut: Joe Lieberman (v. Ned Lamont, v. Alan Schlesinger)
Michigan: Debbie Stabenow (v. Michael Bouchard)
Minnesota: Amy Klobuchar (v. Mark Kennedy)
Nevada: John Ensign (v. Jack Carter)
Washington: Maria Cantwell (v. Mike McGavick)
The more questionable ones:
Maryland: Ben Cardin (v. Michael Steele)
Missouri: Clair McCaskill (v. Jim Talent) **turnover**
Montana: Jon Tester (v. Conrad Burns) **turnover**
New Jersey: Bob Menendez (v. Tom Kean, Jr.)
Ohio: Sherrod Brown (v. Mike DeWine) **turnover**
Pennsylvania: Bob Casey (v. Rick Santorum) **turnover**
Rhode Island: Sheldon Whitehouse (v. Lincoln Chafee) **turnover**
Tennessee: Bob Corker (v. Harold Ford, Jr.)
Virginia: George Allen (v. James Webb)
Final count: Democrats gain 5, leaving the Senate split 50-50 with ties to be broken by the Vice President.
I haven't been 100% correct since 2000, so don't have toooooo high of expectations for me!
On the House side, NPR predicts the Democrats will pick up 23 seats. Although I don't agree which seats will flip, I'd guess the Democrats will gain appoximately 23 seats, but likely no more than that.
